EDITOR'S CHOICE

The Pacific Influence War – Part 5

Another recurring theme which we have not covered in a while is how China, on one side, and the Quad, on the other, is vying for influence across the region. One of the most important examples in this regard is what happened with the Solomon Islands, although it is by far not the only case. […]
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LATEST COMMODITIES INTEL

Metals and Materials Research


Explosive!

I actually mean this quite literally. Let’s take a look at a little known market. Mining Explosives Market to Expand at a CAGR of over 3.1% throughout the Forecast Period 2021-2031 The global mining explosives market is projected to reach US$ 32.69bn by 2031 Mining Explosives Market: DynamicsThe demand for mining explosives is increasing in […]
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BRIEFINGS FROM OUR MACRO FRIEND

Too Many Coincidences

The Negative Wealth EffectCrumbling Activity Housing WoesEmployment CracksTrade ContractionPlunging ConfidenceRelative ExpectationsED Inversion, The Curve & Rates Looking back at the early part of this year, the core message was that markets and growth forecasts were too optimistic, underestimating the impact of “The Squeeze”. By early February, the 2023 recession had become a subject of debate. […]
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LATEST COMMODITIES INTEL

Energy Research


Crude Oil Inventories Week Ending 20 May 2022

Crude: -1.019M Cushing: -1.061M Gasoline: -0.482M Distillates: 1.657M Another solid report. Imports were DOWN a negligible -82K bpd ( -574K barrels on the week) while exports were UP 821K bpd (5.747 million barrels on the week). In addition, we had an SPR release of 5.971 million barrels that were taken out of the reserve and […]
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The Great Steepening from the Fed’s QT

The QT Plan The Fed’s March minutes sketched out a plan for QT that was as aggressive as promised. The maximum monthly redemption cap this time around will be $95b, almost double the $50b cap from the prior QT. It will be split between $60b in Treasuries and $35b in Agency MBS, with some potential […]


Debt Jubilee

When the central bank buys government bonds, say in the context of quantitative easing, it substitutes interest bearing government bonds for monetary liabilities (the money base typically taking the form of bank reserves). In the old days, these liabilities of the central bank were not remunerated. For around the last ten years, however, central banks […]


GLOBAL POLITICAL MACRO COMMENTARY & NEWS UPDATE

“People do what they know works, including the Fed”   Now, the question for us is whether the Fed is ready to let the market go now, or will come back in and pump the usual suspects. At this moment, it feels like they are doing some Nasdaq stock pumping, so they are not ready […]


Odds of a faster taper are increasing, especially after the FOMC minutes

November 29, 2021 In our view, the notable discussion in the FOMC minutes is not the comment that some policymakers supported a faster initial taper than originally announced, but the definitiveness of the shift in the balance of inflation risks, which of course has implications for the policy outlook, including the pace of the taper. Combined with […]


Joe Biden has wasted his petroleum reserve, while the Fed’s inaction adds fuel to the fire

November 29, 2021 It is hard to keep giving Joe Biden the benefit of the doubt. The emergency release of oil stocks from the US strategic petroleum reserve last week violates every rule of statecraft and market management. To borrow from Napoleon, if you say you are going to take Vienna, take Vienna. Prior to […]


The Fed must think creatively again

November 24, 2021 The transitory inflation debate in the United States is over. The upsurge in US inflation has turned into something far worse than the Federal Reserve expected. Perpetually optimistic financial markets are taking this largely in stride. The Fed is widely presumed to have both the wisdom and the firepower to keep underlying […]


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