EDITOR'S CHOICE

The upcoming elections in Japan

The upcoming House of Councillors elections in Japan are one of the potentially most crucial yet, given the potential to drastically shift the landscape in the whole region. This is because, given the most recent poll from Nikkei Asia, the current government is likely to win enough votes to ensure a two-thirds majority. This is crucial, […]
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LATEST COMMODITIES INTEL

Energy Research


Colombia Goes Ultra Leftist

On Sunday, Gustavo Petro achieved a historic win as President of Colombia, becoming the first leftist, progressive president in two centuries. Who is he? Gustavo Petro is a Colombian economist, politician, former guerrilla fighter, senator, and the president-elect of Colombia. At 17 years old,  Petro became a member of the 19th of April Movement (M-19) a Colombian revolutionary organization movement that […]
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BRIEFINGS FROM OUR MACRO FRIEND

Global Liquidity – The Eurozone Next?

Liquidity remains a core issue. Over the course of this year, the US, especially reserves at Federal Reserve banks, have provided the lead. Moreover, with balance sheet reduction now underway it will be fascinating to see how the domestic liquidity environment develops. However, to a large extent, US liquidity is yesterday’s story. It’s a known […]
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LATEST COMMODITIES INTEL

Metals&Materials Research


Crude Oil Inventories Week Ending 24 June 2022

Crude: -2.762M Cushing: -0.782M Gasoline: 2.645M Distillates: 2.559M *OPEC meeting was today. There will be no change to August policy, 648K increase as planned. They are not making their quotas anyway. This is largely symbolic. Reminder, this week was two weeks combined. Good report this week. For week ending 17 June we had a small […]
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The Great Steepening from the Fed’s QT

The QT Plan The Fed’s March minutes sketched out a plan for QT that was as aggressive as promised. The maximum monthly redemption cap this time around will be $95b, almost double the $50b cap from the prior QT. It will be split between $60b in Treasuries and $35b in Agency MBS, with some potential […]


Debt Jubilee

When the central bank buys government bonds, say in the context of quantitative easing, it substitutes interest bearing government bonds for monetary liabilities (the money base typically taking the form of bank reserves). In the old days, these liabilities of the central bank were not remunerated. For around the last ten years, however, central banks […]


GLOBAL POLITICAL MACRO COMMENTARY & NEWS UPDATE

“People do what they know works, including the Fed”   Now, the question for us is whether the Fed is ready to let the market go now, or will come back in and pump the usual suspects. At this moment, it feels like they are doing some Nasdaq stock pumping, so they are not ready […]


Odds of a faster taper are increasing, especially after the FOMC minutes

November 29, 2021 In our view, the notable discussion in the FOMC minutes is not the comment that some policymakers supported a faster initial taper than originally announced, but the definitiveness of the shift in the balance of inflation risks, which of course has implications for the policy outlook, including the pace of the taper. Combined with […]


Joe Biden has wasted his petroleum reserve, while the Fed’s inaction adds fuel to the fire

November 29, 2021 It is hard to keep giving Joe Biden the benefit of the doubt. The emergency release of oil stocks from the US strategic petroleum reserve last week violates every rule of statecraft and market management. To borrow from Napoleon, if you say you are going to take Vienna, take Vienna. Prior to […]


The Fed must think creatively again

November 24, 2021 The transitory inflation debate in the United States is over. The upsurge in US inflation has turned into something far worse than the Federal Reserve expected. Perpetually optimistic financial markets are taking this largely in stride. The Fed is widely presumed to have both the wisdom and the firepower to keep underlying […]


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