Global Macro and Geopolitical Intelligence

AHEAD OF THE HERD

Telling you things everyone else doesn't already know.

The breaking of the gilt market was just the first sign of broader problems

Danger lurks at every turn in a world of rapidly increasing interest rates

A short squeeze or a trend reversal? More the former, but it could last a while

Do slight nuances highlight the start of diverging views at the FOMC

THE GLOBAL MACRO WEEK AHEAD – 2, October, 2022

EDITOR'S CHOICE

In defense of the speculators

“But the Mirror will also show things unbidden, and those are often stranger and more profitable than things which we wish to behold. What you will see, if you leave the Mirror free to work, I cannot tell.” (“The Lord of the Rings”, J.R.R Tolkien) Given the sad state of the Economy in Europe, especially […]

Commodities Research

Energy Research

Let’s Talk About the SPR (Again)

ARAMCO had some strong words for the EU last week: “When you shame oil and gas investors, dismantle oil and coal-fired power plants, fail to diversify energy supplies (especially gas), oppose LNG receiving terminals, and reject nuclear power, your transition plan had better be right,” Saudi Arabian Oil Co. chief executive Amin Nasser said. “Instead, as this […]

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BRIEFINGS FROM OUR MACRO FRIEND

Liquidity – Leverage, Reserves, Equities & Credit – Five Months On

Just over five months ago, a week before the war in Ukraine started, I published the attached note (see end of article for a copy thereof). The release of the FINRA margin statistics for June makes it a suitable time for review and consideration of the outlook. At the time I wrote – “FINRA margin […]

Commodities Research

Metals&Materials Research

Let’s Talk About the SPR (Again)

ARAMCO had some strong words for the EU last week: “When you shame oil and gas investors, dismantle oil and coal-fired power plants, fail to diversify energy supplies (especially gas), oppose LNG receiving terminals, and reject nuclear power, your transition plan had better be right,” Saudi Arabian Oil Co. chief executive Amin Nasser said. “Instead, as this […]

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Expert Writer

The Great Steepening from the Fed’s QT

The QT Plan The Fed’s March minutes sketched out a plan for QT that was as aggressive as promised. The maximum monthly redemption cap this time around will be $95b, almost double the $50b cap from the prior QT. It will be split between $60b in Treasuries and $35b in Agency MBS, with some potential […]

Debt Jubilee

When the central bank buys government bonds, say in the context of quantitative easing, it substitutes interest bearing government bonds for monetary liabilities (the money base typically taking the form of bank reserves). In the old days, these liabilities of the central bank were not remunerated. For around the last ten years, however, central banks […]

GLOBAL POLITICAL MACRO COMMENTARY & NEWS UPDATE

“People do what they know works, including the Fed” Now, the question for us is whether the Fed is ready to let the market go now, or will come back in and pump the usual suspects. At this moment, it feels like they are doing some Nasdaq stock pumping, so they are not ready […]

Odds of a faster taper are increasing, especially after the FOMC minutes

November 29, 2021 In our view, the notable discussion in the FOMC minutes is not the comment that some policymakers supported a faster initial taper than originally announced, but the definitiveness of the shift in the balance of inflation risks, which of course has implications for the policy outlook, including the pace of the taper. Combined with […]

Joe Biden has wasted his petroleum reserve, while the Fed’s inaction adds fuel to the fire

November 29, 2021 It is hard to keep giving Joe Biden the benefit of the doubt. The emergency release of oil stocks from the US strategic petroleum reserve last week violates every rule of statecraft and market management. To borrow from Napoleon, if you say you are going to take Vienna, take Vienna. Prior to […]

The Fed must think creatively again

November 24, 2021 The transitory inflation debate in the United States is over. The upsurge in US inflation has turned into something far worse than the Federal Reserve expected. Perpetually optimistic financial markets are taking this largely in stride. The Fed is widely presumed to have both the wisdom and the firepower to keep underlying […]